This is a summary of the 2009 Santa Barbara Real Estate and Economic Forecast based on the notes of my good friend
Mike Neville. Mike works for a great company called
Formation Solutions, which provides personalized, local business entity resources. From LLC's and Corporations to Non Profits, he knows each formation has specific needs and is able to tailor those needs to fit your business. The focus of this year’s Forecast was regarding what to expect economically in the coming year(s) and to discuss if the recession is over.
The Forecast stated that the recession is over, as the stock market is up over 50% since March 2009. In real estate, housing prices seemed to have bottomed in March of 2009. The summer of 2008 saw a peak in Santa Barbara foreclosures and, overall, interest rates have leveled out for real estate purchases. Unfortunately, the Tri-Counties lost 6,700 jobs; a number much greater than initially expected. The Forecast finds that unemployment will continue to rise up to a state-wide rate of 12-13% by the end of 2009 or the beginning of 2010. Historically, unemployment is one of the last things to flatten.
In the international markets, the Dollar is very weak and gold is constantly reaching new highs. The Forecast predicted that
home foreclosures would rise again over the summer of 2009, which they did, but they are expected to decline into 2010. Banks and lending is still very tight throughout the financial world with a highest number of commercial vacancies since 1984. To add to tensions, the War in Iraq and Afghanistan are making daily headlines, as is the current U.S. Administration.
The Forecast expects a V-shaped recover in housing during the second half of the year with labor markets beginning to rebound by mid-2010. During this time, banks and lenders will begin to loosen their actions as signs point in a positive direction and start-up businesses begin hiring out of the large labor pool.
Credits: Dr. Mark Schniepp, The California Economic Forecast; Steve Golis, Paul Gamberdella Radius Group Commercial Real Estate & Investments, James Goldberg, Presenters.
Thank you for visiting the Santa Barbara Real Estate blog. Contact Daniel Zia by phone (805.637.7148) or by email (Daniel@ZiaGroup.com) for all of your Santa Barbara real estate needs. The ZiaGroup website is a great resource for your
Santa Barbara real estate search.
Daniel Zia, Broker-Associate & Realtor®
Prudential California Realty
For comprehensive real estate information & to search the MLS, visit:
www.ZiaGroup.com Cell: 805.637.7148
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